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World Oil Prices and Economic Growth In the 1980s

The world oil market is a forecaster's nightmare: seldom have so many knowledgeable observers been so wrong so often. Prior to 1973, few foresaw the magnitude of the price jump that was possible under disrupted conditions, or predicted the years of relative stability that followed. The Iranian revolution brought a similar surprise. On the other hand, in the fall of 1980 came the Iran-Iraq war; again a major price shock seemed at hand. Experts are still arguing about why it did not occur.

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Energy Specializations: Petroleum – Markets and Prices for Crude Oil and Products; Energy and the Economy –Economic Growth and Energy Demand; Energy and the Economy – Resource Endowments and Economic Performance

JEL Codes: Q43: Energy and the Macroeconomy, Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q31: Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q35: Hydrocarbon Resources

Keywords: World oil prices, Forecasting, Oil price shocks

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No2-4

Published in Volume 4, Number 2 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.


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