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A Risk Analysis of Oil Development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Stephen G. Powell

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No3-5
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Abstract:
The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska is simultaneously the most promising onshore area for oil exploration and one of the wildest areas remaining in the USA. The conflict between the need to develop energy resources and the desire to preserve wild areas has led to a prolonged debate over the merits of programs to lease the region for oil exploration and development.



Allocating the Added Value of Energy Policies

Frederic H. Murphy and Edward C. Rosenthal

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No2-8
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Abstract:
Developing an energy policy from a collection of programs is made more complicated because there is no single value that can be used as a best estimate of the contribution of a single policy, despite the ability to estimate the impact of the complete suite. In this paper we illustrate the problem and use cooperative game theory to show one way to estimate individual effects of a policy goal in the context of collective estimates. Using an economic equilibrium model, we illustrate the behavior of four policies, namely, a gasoline tax, CAFE standards, a carbon tax, and drilling the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, through their Shapley value contributions in measuring the impact of each in the context of a suite of policies. We apply the Shapley value to measure the average marginal reduction in imports for each policy, and present a number of scenarios that illustrate how the Shapley value behaves as a measure of policy contribution.





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