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CETA: A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment

Stephen C Peck and Thomas J. Teisberg

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No1-4
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We present an economic growth and energy use model incorporating representations of greenhouse gas accumulation, global mean temperature rise, and the damage cost associated with this temperature rise. Under alternative assumptions about the damage cost function, we find optimal time paths of CO, emissions control and associated optimal carbon taxes. Our work indicates that with plausible assumptions, an optimal carbon tax will rise over time, in contrast to the "hump shaped" carbon taxes implied by C02 reduction policies currently being discussed. Our work also suggests that the damage cost function would have to be both high and nonlinear in order to justify the general level of CO2 control and carbon taxes implied by these policies.

The Social Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Expected Value Approach

Samuel Fankhauser

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-9
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This paper provides an order-of-rnagnitude assessment of the marginal social costs of greenhouse gas emissions. Re calculations are based on a stochastic greenhouse damage model in which key parameters are random. This allows a closer representation of current scientific understanding and also enables calculation of a damage probability distribution. Thus, we account explicitly for the uncertain nature of the global warming phenomenon. We estimate social costs of CO2 emissions in the order of 20 $/tC for emissions between 1991 and 2000, a value which rises over time to about 28 $/tC in 2021-2030. Similar figures for CH4 and N2O are also provided. As a consequence of the prevailing uncertainty, the standard deviation of the estimates is rather high. The distribution is positively skewed, which implies that the currently predominant method of using best guess values will lead to an underestimation of the expected costs of emissions.

CO2 Emissions Control Agreements: Incentives for Regional Participation

Stephen C. Peck and Thomas J. Teisberg

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-14
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This paper explores the incentives for participation in international CO2 control agreements using tradable emission permits. We employ a welfare analysis in a two-region model to explore these incentives. The two regions are Annex-I (A-I) and Non-Annex I (Non-A-I). A key insight underlying the analysis is that emission permit allocations must not depart too far from optimal emissions paths, to avoid creating future incentives to drop out of the agreement. We find a range of permit allocations that improves the welfare of both the Annex-I and the Non-Annex I, and compare them with allocations based on regional population or GDP. In addition, we examine the implications of the Kyoto agreement in the context of this welfare analysis. We find that the Kyoto agreement transfers wealth from A-I to the Non-A-I, while failing to realize tile efficiency gains to be hoped for from an agreement to control CO2 emissions.

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