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The Oil Price-Microeconomy Relationship is Alive and Well

Francçois Lescaroux

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No1-2
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Abstract:
This paper analyzes the oil price-macroeconomy relationship using a model that aims at taking into account all the sources of instability highlighted by previous studies. Mainly, we adopt a sectoral approach and weight oil prices by sectoral energy intensities. Further, inspired by Alfred Marshall's treatment of time, we also put forward a new approach to model short-term interactions between economic variables that relies on an error-correcting mechanism depending on cumulative errors. Applied to the U.S. economy, our model enables us to estimate stable relationships between oil prices and sectoral economic indicators. Further, it explains both the long-run weakening of the relationship between oil prices and aggregate economic activity and its short-run instability. We show that the oil price-macroeconomy relationship is fading but the oil price-microeconomy relationship is alive and well.



Understanding Oil Price Dynamics and their Effects over Recent Decades: An Interview with James Hamilton

Fredj Jawadi

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Special Issue
DOI:
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Abstract:
The following interview with Prof. James Hamilton was conducted in April 2018 by Dr. Fredj Jawadi with the assistance of Professors Jim Smith and Adonis Yatchew during the 5th International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF) held in Paris, France. The interview includes 21 questions related to oil price dynamics. The aim of the discussion was, first, to help the reader gain a better understanding of the factors driving changes in oil prices, second, to examine the impact of oil price shocks on the economy and, third, to understand the dynamics of oil prices in the future. The recent related literature on oil price uncertainty is also discussed. We hope that this interview will give the reader clearer insights into the causes and consequences of oil price change and its evolution over time.





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