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Energy-Output Coefficients: Complex Realities Behind Simple Ratios

G. C. Watkins and E. R. Berndt

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No2-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
The demand for energy is a derived demand, since it is transmitted from demands for goods and services that incorporate energy as an input. Trends in the ratio of energy consumption to the level of output the so-called energy coefficient-are often used to examine energy demand in the industrial and other demand sectors.' In a market economy, the inference of this approach is that at a time of increasing energy prices, a rise in the energy coefficient is an indication of waste and inefficiency or of a perverse price response. Correspondingly, a fall in the energy coefficient is evidence of the efficacy of the price mechanism and government regulations inpromoting energy conservation.



Modeling Energy Conservation Programs: An Application to Natural Gas Utilities

Adam Rose

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No4-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years conservation received a great deal of attention from energy managers at all levels. Some conservation measures were undertaken voluntarily because they were profitable. Others were adopted to comply with regulations, many of which were intended to reduce social costs of energy production and delivery. The 1970s have been characterized as the era of natural gas shortages, and conservation represented one of many reasonable alternatives for utilities confronted by potential and actual excess demand.



Energy Demand Modeling with Noisy Input-Output Variables

Lov Kumar Kher, Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, and Soroosh Sorooshian

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No4-4
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Abstract:
One of the most important challenges facing energy analysts is to predict future energy consumption levels. The volatility of energy prices following the 1973 oil embargo and the unexpected elasticity of demand to higher prices caught most energy forecasters off the mark (see Energy Daily, "How It Didn't Turn Out: The Forecasters Who Failed," 1986). The same can be said of electricity forecasters who consistently overshot growth rates for over a decade despite compelling signs to lower their projections (Uhler and Nelson, 1985), (see Figure 1).



Energy Planning in Taiwan: An Alternative Approach Using a Multiobjective Programming and Input-Output Model

George J. Y. Hsu, Ping Sun Leung and Chauncey T. K. Ching

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No1-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Faced with limited energy resources and soaring energy demand arising from rapid economic growth, Taiwan has to import a substantial amount of energy. In 1983, 88 percent of its total energy requirement (35.54 million kiloliters of oil equivalent) was imported. Since this heavy dependence will likely continue to increase for the next decade, energy economic planning in Taiwan is a critical issue. A major concern has been how "to achieve a certain economic growth rate with a minimum consumption of energy" (Kuo, 1983, p. 312).



Output and Energy: An International Analysis

John R. Moroney

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No3-1
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Abstract:
This paper analyzes the relationship between GNP per capita and energy consumption per capita for 43 market economies during the years 1978, 1979, and 1980. Several functional forms are analyzed. Specification tests establish that a double logarithmic equation is preferable to all others. Statistical estimates further indicate a distinct pattern of diminishing real income response to greater per capita energy consumption. Advanced economies with relatively low-cost energy (Canada, Norway, the U.S.A.) exhibit practically identical per capita incomes as industrialized nations with higher-cost energy (Sweden, France, and the Federal Republic of Germany).



Input-Output Analysis and Pollutant Emissions in France

Jean-Martial Breuil

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No3-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper deals with the principle of pollutant emissions defined by Leontief in 1971, based on a fixed coefficient model. I have tested the plausibility of this model by attempting to replicate data on French emissions of SO2 and NOx by combustion and processes.



Structural Changes and Energy Consumption in the Japanese Economy 1975-95: An Input-Output Analysis

Xiaoli Han and TK. Lakshmanan

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No3-9
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Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of the pervasive structural changes in the Japanese economy on its energy intensity in the decade 1975-85. It advances the energy input-output (I-O) structural decomposition analysis (SDA) in two ways. First, it introduces a double denominator method to relax the assumption that all electricity is derived from fossil fuels in energy I-O analysis. Second, it develops a model which identifies explicitly the effect of energy imports. The application of our model to the Japanese experience suggested that changes in final demand structure contributed more to reducing the energy intensity of the economy than the much discussed effects of changes in technology. The overall decline in the energy intensity of the economy was accompanied by drastic shifts in the fuel mix of its energy supply, in particular, a substitution of oil by natural gas.



Strategies for OPEC's Pricing and Output Decisions

Dermot Gately

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No3-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper examines OPEC pricing and output strategies, both to provide an understanding of OPECs unwise price doubling in 1979-80 and also to analyze what strategy might serve it best for the future. We focus on the unavoidable uncertainty regarding the underlying parameters that characterize the world oil market (price elasticities, income growth rates), and the sensitivity of discounted OPEC revenue to changes in these parameters, for various pricing strategies. In 1979-80, OPEC chose a high-price strategy, which could have yielded good results (like many other price-paths) if the market's underlying parameters had been more favorable. But the price elasticities of demand and non-OPEC supply were much higher than anticipated, so that OPEC did very poorly-not only in absolute terms, but also relative to what it could have achieved if it had set its price more cautiously. We search for a robustly optimal strategy for OPEC in the future, which will serve it well relative to other strategies, regardless of the true parameter values underlying the market (within some plausible range). We conclude that OPEC's interests will be served best by a policy of moderate output growth, at a rate no faster than that of world income growth. This will require that OPEC slow its rate of output growth since 1985, cutting it at least in half. Slowing its output growth will allow OPEC gradually to regain the market share lost after its disastrous 1979-80 price doubling, but without jeopardizing its revenue, as might a policy of more rapid increases in output. This will yield a consistently good result for OPEC, relative to alternative strategies, over a fairly wide range of demand and supply conditions.





OPEC's Incentives for Faster Output Growth

Dermot Gately

Year: 2004
Volume: Volume 25
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper addresses the question of whether OPEC producers are likely to expand their oil output substantially over the next two decades more than doubling in the Gulf countries by 2020. Such projections, made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), are not based on behavioral analysis of Gulf countries decisions, but are merely the residual demand for OPEC oil the difference between projected world oil demand and Non-OPEC supply, given some assumed price-path. I employ a simulation model to compare OPEC s payoffs from faster or slower output growth, under various parametric assumptions about the responsiveness of world oil demand and Non-OPEC supply to income and price changes. The payoffs to OPEC are relatively insensitive to faster output growth; aggressive output expansion yields slightly lower payoffs than just maintaining current market share. Analysis of intra-OPEC decisions between the Core countries and the others suggests a similar conclusion: these two groups are engaged in a constant-sum game. Thus, the significant increases in OPEC output projected by IEA and DOE are implausible.




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