IAEE Members and subscribers to The Energy Journal: Please log in to access the full text article or receive discounted pricing for this article.

Are Decline Rates Really Exponential? Evidence From the UK Continental Shelf

Understanding of oil and gas production decline rates is important in order to predict future behaviour and give policy guidelines. Most studies propose exponential and/or hyperbolic decline rates. Econometric techniques are extensively used in the present study to establish that logistic decline rates best fit the UKCS data and that the majority of fields have experienced complex logistic decline. Newer fields with relatively smaller reserves were found to have higher annual mean decline and decline decelerating rates Ð a property that poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the industry.

Purchase ( $25 )

Energy Specializations: Petroleum – Exploration and Production; Energy Modeling – Energy Data, Modeling, and Policy Analysis; Energy Modeling – Other

JEL Codes: Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q21: Renewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q42: Alternative Energy Sources, Q35: Hydrocarbon Resources, C52: Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection, Q31: Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply; Prices, C53: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods

Keywords: Oil and gas production, decline rate, UK, depletion, logistic model

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No1-2

Published in Volume 26, Number 1 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.


© 2023 International Association for Energy Economics | Privacy Policy | Return Policy